DISQUS

zoolish · 2 years ago

Well… just remember that public opinion is a "tricky" business… Public opinion polls done by anti-smoking activists have shown that the second most recognized figure by 6 year old children is Joe Camel (the first most recognized is Mickey mouse…). Yet, the tobacco lobby has always been "smart" enough to "bribe" (if you don't like the term "bribe" you can replace is with "support". Makes no difference to me…) real politicians and not fantasize about the electoral power of Joe… Public opinion does not always traslate into electoral power. This is even more evident when the internet is under debate. Internet super-star status is not fully cashable at the polls. Never has been…

Rogel · 2 years ago

I'm trying to reconcile between a phenomena of a candidate that appears to drew a lot of attention on-line and yet his lagging behind on the general polls, somewhere around the margin of error. The difference is simply to wide to ignore.
I agree with you that what seems as on line support is "not fully cashable",  but the reasons for that are what I'm after.
 

zoolish · 2 years ago

Your own remarks are a good start. But, I think that the most reasonable explanations are organization and public appeal (the last is in some ways connected to what you're already said). Organization stems usually from the candidates support within his own party, and his ability to mobilize core party supporters. It is also an expert skill, but that can be paid for, and usually is – so all candidates end up with the same experts (same type at least) on their side. Public appeal is a matter of how the candidate is perceived. I would think that a key factor with this specific candidate would sound in the minds of many as something like this: "he speaks the right words, but… can he run a country?". I hate to remind you, but… he's also old(er) looking. You'll be right to through that back in my face, but… American electorate tends to attribute positive values to youth. A 25 year old would find it tough, but a 45 year old will definitely appeal to many voters more than an older (and older looking) candidate. One last thing to take in mind (well, there are endless things to take in mind, but I myself will stop after this one) is that the internet can be easily manipulated (and relatively at a cheep cost). A candidate struggling on polls may decide to invest in achieving good internet status. A stronger candidate, who stands a real chance in the ballot box, would not go overboard trying to influence the net. He/she will strive for internet presence, but put most of their effort elsewhere.